Key points include:
- The Road Ahead: Decision-Making in Times of Turmoil and Opportunity
- The Perils of The Past: Basing Financial Decisions on “Best Story Wins”
- How the Monte Carlo Method Drives Productive Risk-taking
- “People Are Systematically Overconfident in Almost Everything They Do.”
- The Value of Simulations: Predicting Worst-case Scenarios and Mitigating Outcomes